U.S. stock markets closed out the month of October with the largest monthly losses we’ve seen in more than six years. All of 2018’s gains were essentially wiped out over just a few days of trading. Bond markets have been hurt all year as interest rates have continued to rise precipitously on the back of strong employment numbers. Investors are now worried that the future costs to service debt will halt the demand side growth we finally began to see after the financial crisis. I wrote last week that it appeared market participants were positioning themselves for things to get worse, not better. I also explained that we had a huge batch of earnings coming in and the response to those might very well dictate the end of this bull market. I said the proof would be in whether investors bought or sold the inevitable bounce in stocks from deeply oversold conditions. We saw the bounce over the past few days and Friday investors sold into it. While one or two days, or even weeks, does not make or break the stock market, this fact is not a good sign. The 200-day moving averages are now acting as resistance for major indexes, just as they once offered support prior to being broken. The October pain is not over and a fourth quarter rally cannot occur until those important moving averages are reclaimed. I spoke at an adviser event early last week and pointed out that almost 80% of all U.S. stocks were trading below their 200-day moving averages. This has been the case all year for foreign equities and it is coming home to roost. This old bull market is not dead and earnings are good, but I believe the best is likely behind us. We have seasonality in our favor and a bounce may very well occur as we close in on the end of the year, but I am concerned, and at Cabana we are defensive. We remain cautiously bullish – very cautiously bullish
- Weekly Market Commentary
- America is hitting “peak 65” in 2024 as record number of boomers reach retirement age. Here’s what to know.
- America is hitting “peak 65” in 2024 as record number of boomers reach retirement age. Here’s what to know.
- Weekly Market Commentary
- As baby boomers hit ‘peak 65’ this year, what the retirement age should be is up for debate
- A WAY TO JUMP-START 529-TO-ROTH ROLLOVERS
- Weekly Market Commentary
- 10 Things No One Tells You About Early Retirement
- BACK-DOOR ROTH IRAS AND ROTH 401KS: TODAY’S SLOTT REPORT MAILBAG
- MAKING A 2023 IRA CONTRIBUTION? HERE ARE 4 RULES THAT MAY SURPRISE YOU
- Weekly Market Commentary
- LAST WEEK IN LA JOLLA
- THE PRO-RATA RULE AND INHERITED IRA RMDS: TODAY’S SLOTT REPORT MAILBAG
- Can Remote Work Get You a Head Start on Retirement?
- MORE 401(K) SECURE 2.0 CHANGES ALREADY IN EFFECT – AND ON THE WAY
- THINKING ABOUT A 2023 SEP IRA CONTRIBUTION? HERE ARE 6 RULES YOU NEED TO KNOW
- Weekly Market Commentary
- ROTH CONVERSIONS AND INHERITED IRAS: TODAY’S SLOTT REPORT MAILBAG
- 10 Things You Need to Know Before Filing Your Tax Return
- GHOST VS. 5-YEAR: THE CALENDAR DICTATES